Ukraine

[Animalmother]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877

[Achtung Englander]

If he continues to lose this war, he might actually drop one on Ukraine.

Everything will boil down on what NATO does next. The US must now be on Defcon 3

[eny]

There is increasing talk that puta-in is maybe terminally ill and on a last-ditch mission...either way, we need the bunker bullet part of the story sooner rather than later. The world should put a mother fucking bounty on his head.

[Wrathbone]

I keep hearing this rumour that Putin is seriously ill. What’s the evidence for it, or is it just wild internet speculation?

[Achtung Englander]

I wonder - if he calls for the "football" - will one of the generals just shoot him in the head?

[Lenny Solidus]

[eny]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian ... iv-report/

[Animalmother]

It will takes days or weeks for all these claims to be verified but sweet Jesus the Russian's are getting creamed. There's a vibe of 'fuck yeah, kill the Ruskis!!" on many sites but I genuinely feel very sorry for the soldiers, it must be terrifying seeing your army crumble around you. But fuck the Chechen mercenaries.

I'm guessing its squeaky bum time for Assad, Lukashenko and several other of Putin's cronies right now.

[eny]

Farmers are cashing in:






I fucking love the Ukrainians!

[Pew-Pew]

I've got to reiterate - don't believe every tweet you see about this war. There is zero context to that footage, as with a lot of stuff that has been popping up. Same with the 'Ghost of Kyiv' stuff from before. BS gets spread around very quickly whilst the fog of war is still present.

Great example of this: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/is-th ... ideo-real/

That widely shared video from a few days ago showing the 'Ghost' downing a jet was from DCS. A video game.



I have a horrible feeling that the Russians are about to start sending a lot more troops into the fight.

Edit:



Ruh roh.

[Mantis]

Yeah it looks like they've changed tact somewhat and are just sending huge amounts of troops to put the city under siege now. If they storm it then it'll be an utter bloodbath.

The thing about the 56 tanks is apparently partly true, only they were tank fuel trucks rather than actual armour. Still, the longer the Ukrainian's hold out the nastier this will get, regardless of how admirable their efforts are.

[Achtung Englander]

I cannot see any good outcome to this whatsoever. If the Russians wins, how is normal relations going to be resumed? If Russia keeps on losing, how will Putin react in the face of national and worldwide embrassment?

For the world at large this is a lose/lose deal. If you have ever seen the film Threads, the storyline is identical to what is playing out now, except the war starts in Iran not Ukraine. After 2 months into the war, it ends with a nuclear war.

The only viable situation this can resolve itself is if the Kremlin and the top generals take matters in their own hands and topple Putin.

[Wrathbone]

I cannot see any good outcome to this whatsoever. If the Russians wins, how is normal relations going to be resumed? If Russia keeps on losing, how will Putin react in the face of national and worldwide embrassment?

If his attempt to invade Ukraine ends up being a disaster for him, I think his rhetoric around a nuclear war will skyrocket to crisis levels as a distraction and then he will de-escalate it to try and come across as the bigger man, before quietly pulling his forces back to Russia. Putin's entire narrative around Ukraine has been that NATO are the aggressors and he's acting in defence of Russia, so the obvious solution to a failed invasion would be to appear to his supporters that he is the heroic negotiator who brought the world back from a near-certain nuclear apocalypse (that he threatened to instigate).

[Achtung Englander]

Putin is now Trump. Take him as face value. He does not bluff. If he says he will push the button - he will.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140

[Wrathbone]

Putin is now Trump. Take him as face value. He does not bluff. If he says he will push the button - he will.

Isn't that exactly what he wants the West to think, though? Every reckless move he's made so far only reinforces the belief that he's a loose cannon who would destroy the world before losing, but it could simply be a calculated bluff - like a false tell in poker.

He might be forced to go down the escalate / de-escalate route sooner rather than later given that Russian interest rates have gone from 9.5% to 20% overnight. Double (t)rouble! Wars cost money, and the longer this one goes on, the less likely Putin will be able to take and hold Ukraine. If there's one thing the major conflicts of the past half-century have demonstrated, it's that occupying forces fighting against a guerrilla war do not fare well.