Ukraine

[Achtung Englander]

this is interesting

[Animalmother]

If Putin had never come to power in the first place and someone with a more global view had taken over from Yeltsin I wonder what the world would be like now. That brief and hazy time in the 90's when Russia was considered a Western ally was nice if I remember rightly.

[Solitaire]

If Putin had never come to power in the first place and someone with a more global view had taken over from Yeltsin I wonder what the world would be like now. That brief and hazy time in the 90's when Russia was considered a Western ally was nice if I remember rightly.

It was quite nice. That was the time when I lived over there for a few months, found a (now ex) wife and stepdaughter, rode overnight trains through snow-covered birch forests, celebrated Russian Veteran's Day in Moscow by watching fireworks and drinking very good, very cheap vodka, stayed up all night dancing at the discos, couldn't hardly spend money because the dollar was so strong against the ruble... Just a few months after Oksana and Katya joined me here in Florida, in the summer of 1999, Yeltsin resigned, turning the wheels over to Putin.

[Mantis]

There wasn't really an alternative to Putin who would have done that at the time. Yeltsin had presided over a lot of economic failure during his tenure and was seen to play a large part in the rise of the oligarch class when they misjudged the voucher policy and sold all the publicly owned infrastructure and utility assets on the cheap which led to them falling into the hands of a select few now very rich businessmen who then stashed all the profits offshore and wouldn't spend it on helping to improve Russia. Russia's first taste of Western capitalism was essentially seeing all their publicly owned services stolen by a minority of wealthy business owners. You can see why UK Tory's suck up to them and help launder their money through London, it's a Tory wet dream. The dismantling of our state into private hands has been slowly happening for 50 years, in Russia it happened in about five.

Putin's main opposition at his first election was the Communist Party. Putin won a pretty clear majority (partly down to his firm strongman hand over Chechnyan terrorists after civilian bombings in Moscow; which conspiracy theorists suggest that he was behind himself to drum up nationalist support), but the alternative choice was actually in favour of reinstalling state owned enterprise and cutting ties with the west.

I don't think they will mount a full-scale invasion. They will do their utmost to cause chaos and the collapse of a functional Ukranian government, but will stop short of escalating things that far. They really don't want Ukraine to join NATO, that's the crux of it. Ukraine is the second biggest country in Europe after Russia and whilst there are already a couple of smaller NATO countries on Russia's border, if Ukraine were to join it would create a huge land border between NATO and Russia. Ukraine also has some pretty key access points with ports in the Black Sea which Russia will definitely not want under the NATO sphere of influence.

I think the whole thing is silly. You can kind of see Putin's point when you consider that NATO was predominantly created to defend against an expansionist Soviet Union which no longer exists. Russian foreign policy is very cagey about having threats near its borders and NATO is pushing its expansion eastwards to the very limits. If Russia had engaged more in cooperation with its neighbours rather than spend twenty years using bullying tactics then maybe they wouldn't be facing this issue right now. But you can't deny that having a large multinational military organisation set up specifically to oppose your country move onto your front doorstep is quite a significant act that might prompt a reaction. At the end of the day things are just the same now as they have been throughout all of history, neighbours can't help themselves when it comes to not getting on. It's a shame that it always has to come down to military posturing.

[Achtung Englander]

The world for just one day back in 1991

[Alan]

Russia may be trying to cut the internet data cables connecting Europe to the USA and Irish Fishermen are coming to the rescue.

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-subm ... n-12511437

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60130486

[Solitaire]

I'll make one last post in here then lurk about again. I'm leaning towards an invasion. Putin invaded the Crimea a few years back. Nobody did jack then. He interfered in Syria, in direct opposition to the US. He just sent troops to Kazakhstan. Russian cyberattacks into Ukraine will escalate. The modernization of the Russian military is much more than posturing. His legacy for his country could well be an attempt to recapture the glory of the Soviet machine. Machismo is an integral part of the Russian culture. In short, I don't have a good feeling about it - I think Ukraine is in for much more pain, well beyond what they've been experiencing in the Crimea and Donbass regions. There's lots of Ukrainians that side with Russia and will continue to assist with the annexation of those regions, and possibly the overthrow of the government of Ukraine.

[Animalmother]

We really seem to be returning to an era of dictators again. A few cunts just ruining it for everyone.

[eny]

Looks like Putin is pushing ahead with an invasion. The goal is regime change, but it is going to be bloody. The US right will wet themselves with glee and blame Biden, cause that is all they've got. Things are going to be messy for quite a while.

[Tommy]

Looks like Putin is pushing ahead with an invasion. The goal is regime change, but it is going to be bloody. The US right will wet themselves with glee and blame Biden, cause that is all they've got. Things are going to be messy for quite a while.

It's quite scary really because it'll usher in a new Right wave in the US, almost certainly. Whether that's a resurgent Trump or whether he's precluded from election by then and it's somebody almost as bad. Which begets nationalism which etc.

And then in the middle of it all is Ukraine.

[eny]

It is very worrying because it's not just the US that is fostering fascist fantasists, it is a latent energy almost worldwide that has been growing this last decade or so...there is a lot of right-wing bile ready to spill out in other Eastern European countries, as well as closer to home. Build a background stock of basic foodstuffs and fluids, and a knowledge of how to make things easier amidst energy blackouts, it will be time well spent methinks.

[Achtung Englander]

so...is it happening or not?

[Hatredsheart]

We're certainly living in "interesting times" at the moment, aren't we?

[eny]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... movements/


Also, there has been a significant buildup of Russian helicopter based special forces in Belarus, which may mean that there will be a direct attack on the seat of the Ukraine government in order to push an overthrow.

[Animalmother]

What happens when the people of Belarus inevitably dispose of their own dictator in the foreseeable future? I suppose Russia will bulldoze into that country as well claiming national security reasons.